Prince Edward Island '11: A Preview

Robert Ghiz has been the Premier of Prince Edward Island since 2007, and his party has shown remarkable resistance to fading popularity despite a global recession, and a reinvigorated opposition party. Nothing this they are having a general election on October 3rd. I'm not expecting much of a race at all in this. Read on and you'll find out why.

The most recent poll I can find from late August 2010 had the governing Liberals ahead of the PC Party by 31 percent. That represents an 8% growth for the Liberals, and an 11% decrease for the official opposition with the remaining changes resting with the NDP and Greens. For this upcoming election I would expect the Liberals to claim all 27 seats (granted I haven't officially crunched the numbers) leaving the Progressive Conservatives out of the legislation. The NDP should replace the Greens as the third party without any legislative representation as well after its 2007 fail whale of an election. It's entirely possible that the political climate of the province has changed since then (in fact, I would expect that to a degree) but to have half of the support of the government, shows you have a lot of ground to make up in a remarkable short amount of time.

It has only happened once before in Canadian electoral history (New Brunswick, 1987) and even then the Liberals got 60% support, so 61% in PEI doesn't sound like a long shot for a sweep of all seats. Still, it doesn't make for a very exciting campaign, but it's only a matter of time until Prince Edward Island realizes just like the rest of Canada the best method of government. I'll tell you one thing too: it isn't centrism.

Canada '11: The Writs

While we could all see it coming from a long ways away, the government sure fell quickly didn't it? Also, contrary to what most people, including the Prime Minister are suggesting, the government did not collapse over the budget, rather it was on a vote of confidence regarding contempt of Parliament. What Harper is correct about though, is that this is our fourth federal election in seven years, granted he helped cause three of them. Still, we have to be ready to fight and it appears that the NDP is.

The election is set for May 2nd, giving us five weeks to scramble about and show the public why the NDP should lead Canada. This is also my first election with a specific role: sign coordinator. While it has caused me some stress over the past few days, I am confident that victory is within reach. Randall Garrison can be Esquimalt - Juan de Fuca's next MP, but it will require some hard work. If you want to get involved in the campaign and help elect a progressive voice to Ottawa, you can join us at 1006 Craigflower Avenue in Esquimalt. In fact, if you want to be part of the sign crew, you'll make me very happy.

Polling hasn't changed much on a national level. The Conservatives are sitting in the mid to upper 30's, the opposition Liberals in the mid to upper 20's, the NDP is in the high teens and the Greens are at about 6%. In other provinces though, there have been some serious changes. The most notable being the surge of Liberal support in Alberta, and collapse of NDP support in Atlantic Canada in favour of the governing party. These changes are allowing for some Conservative seat gains, enough for me to predict a majority government for Harper. This would the first elected since 2000, an impressive feat for such a secretive and deceitful ministry. Here's how the seats break down:

Seat Projections

Conservative Party of Canada - 158 seats (+15)

Liberal Party of Canada - 60 seats (-17)

Bloc Quebecois - 52 seats (+3)

New Democratic Party - 37 seats

Independent - 1 seat (-1)

Allow me to repeat this for you: a Conservative majority. Scary right? Yeah, that's why we have to work really hard to ensure that Harper doesn't get his way. It's time we work harder than we ever have on a campaign to ensure that we send a reasonable, competent voice to Ottawa rather than a regressive and silenced Conservative. The task ahead of us is indeed daunting, but together we can achieve anything. Let's get out there and change the world.

Protecting our Environment

As of late Langford appears to be sexually attracted to development. Now, I see the need for development in some respects. I understand that as Greater Victoria grows, we will have to build new neighbourhoods and other community centres here, and I accept that. What I don't accept is when the environment is the after thought of development.

Take for example Sysco Foods in Goldstream. It's a large building to begin with, and after construction was completed, City Council throws up parkland status around the building. So, now a lake with what I believe to be industrial waste dumping into the lake and mounds of flat earth is protected from development. That's just great! Now, why we didn't protect the entire area in its natural state, considering that the development is misplaced (it's beside residential homes!) and excessive in size, I don't know. Oh wait, I do know! This Council doesn't care about the environment! How could I have forgotten?

Langford has a lot of lakes and natural beauty. Massive development projects on Bear Mountain, at West Hills and to a lesser degree Keetle Creek have severely diminished the city's true beauty: nature. Take a look at Spencer Pond right beside the Bridge to Nowhere, er... Spencer Interchange. Is it protected? No. All around Langford, water bodies with sensitive ecosystems are either being destroyed or disturbed. Forests are being wiped out to make room for commercial space and to fulfill the needs of the Council's infatuation with sporting venues. We also can't forget that the want to develop on the Agricultural Land Reserve.

If Langford really did care about the environment they would place all remaining water bodies that have yet to be impacted by development and the land adjacent to them as protected parkland. They also wouldn't open up development north of the Trans Canada Highway to ease up traffic issues (I see a logical fallacy!), and they certainly wouldn't proclaim that they care about farmers when they want to develop on the little bits of land that remain part of the Land Reserve.

Get your priorities straight Langford: it's time you put the environment before the dollar.

Clark's Cabinet

Christy Clark is our Premier (shudder) and her new cabinet is ready to lead to the province to... well, they say prosperity. Let's see how the cabinet posts play out:

Government House Leader - Rich Coleman
Deputy Government House Leader - Terry Lake
Minister of Aboriginal Relations & Reconciliation - Mary Polak
Minister of Advance Education - Naomi Yamamoto
Minister of Agriculture - Don McRae
Minister of Children & Family Development - Mary McNeil
Minister of Community, Sport & Cultural Development - Ida Chong
Minister of Energy & Mines - Rich Coleman
Minister of Environment - Terry Lake
Minister of Forests, Lands & Natural Resource Operations - Steve Thomson
Minister of Health - Mike de Jong
Minister of Jobs, Tourism & Innovation - Pat Bell
Minister of Labour, Citizens' Services & Open Government - Stephanie Cadieux
Minister of Public Safety & Solicitor-General - Shirley Bond
Minister of Social Development - Harry Bloy
Minister of Transportation & Infrastructure - Blair Lekstrom

Where to begin? Oh, I know! Colin Hansen is now completely out of cabinet! Hooray! But wait there's more! Margaret MacDiarmid the Education Minister who so refused to hand over cash for a new high school on the WestShore, leadership candidate Moira Stilwell and open mouth, insert foot member Kevin Krueger was also left without a flashy new title. One of the only newcomers meanwhile is Harry Bloy (how convenient seeing as he was the only MLA to endorse Christy).

Clark's cabinet is also smaller than Campbell's. I'm not opposed to this, as this is a reduction of five members since Campbell's most recent "reshuffling" of the Executive Council back in October. My issue with all of this is the fact that the same clowns sitting at Campbell's Executive Council simply having a different title and are now sitting at Clark's Executive Council. Yet what's the media response to all of this? Applause and respect. Let's face the facts ladies and gentlemen: not a whole lot has changed, not the people, not the vision, not the leadership.

Newfoundland & Labrador '11: A Preview

Our brothers to the east in Newfoundland and Labrador will elect a new government on October 11th. While there is nearly no question as to who will win (tragically), the second place position could go to either to the Liberals once again, or for the first time, the NDP.

The average poll in 2010 had the Progressive Conservatives at 77% support (+7%), the Liberals in second with 16% (-6%), and the NDP in third with 7% (-1%). However, the governing party's support could drop after Kathy Dunderdale's boom in popularity ends following her election as leader. Granted, it most likely will not cause a massive change among the electorate. Danny Williams was a popular fellow, but the question remains: was his party popular, or was he just personally popular?

Recent by-elections have shown a dramatic drop in Liberal support, often to the point of a distant third place finish. Should this trend continue, the opposition might become further silenced or be replaced entirely by the NDP. This coupled with a terribly unorganized Liberal Party; we just might see the opposition turn orange. Hooray for the death of the centre!

It looks like Kathy Dunderdale will lead the Progressive Conservatives to another majority government in 2011. But how big will this majority be?

Budget Showdown

Jim Flaherty, the Finance Minister, will present his sixth budget to the House of Commons on March 22nd. If you've been paying any attention to national politics in the past, oh... four or five months, you'll know there is much discussion about this looming confidence vote in Ottawa. If the budget fails to pass, we get an election propped on us. The chances of this happening are very high.

Noting that this is a minority parliament, for the budget to pass it needs the support of another party; in budgets past, this is where the Liberal Party comes in, but based on recent remarks they claim they will vote against the budget regardless of what is contained within it. The Bloc is telling the same story, and after their outrageous demand of four billion dollars for Quebec, they too are out of the question. This leaves the NDP, which has set up demands of a $700 million dollar increase for guaranteed income supplements for seniors, more doctors and nurses, an improved Canada Pension Plan, the reestablishment of the EcoEnergy tax credit and the elimination of the HST/GST off home heating costs. While some progress was made with the Conservatives and doctors, it fell far short from the proposals of the NDP. Since then, Harper's team has been terribly quiet about a possible election.

Once you look at the polls though, then you'll understand why we're doomed to have an election later this year. Most polls have the government way out in front of the opposition, in one case it was sixteen points ahead of the Liberals at 43%. Overall, the Liberals are doing as well as they did in 2008 (which isn't saying much), along with the Bloc. Doing slightly better than the last election are the Greens and Conservatives. The NDP meanwhile has had incredibly contradictory polls some showing an improvement others showing a massive decrease. Any increase for the Tories is good news, especially considering they were terribly close to a majority government in the most recent election. Scary news isn't it?

Harper's all about strategy though. He may be a horrendous PM, but he is a brilliant strategist. The recent sway of public opinion in Ontario is excellent news for "Harper's Government" (ugh) and it is here where they will pick up seats and possibly a majority government. They only need another twelve, and the feat doesn't seem to be so unrealistic. While they haven't gained support anywhere else, they also haven't lost it, another significant accomplishment for the party.

In short, the evidence is growing day by day that the Conservatives will cause an election this spring in order to get that coveted majority. My guess is the death of the budget as early as April Fool's Day (what a cruel joke) with an election either May 2nd or May 9th. Oh politics, you never cease to entertain me.