Canada '11: The Writs

While we could all see it coming from a long ways away, the government sure fell quickly didn't it? Also, contrary to what most people, including the Prime Minister are suggesting, the government did not collapse over the budget, rather it was on a vote of confidence regarding contempt of Parliament. What Harper is correct about though, is that this is our fourth federal election in seven years, granted he helped cause three of them. Still, we have to be ready to fight and it appears that the NDP is.

The election is set for May 2nd, giving us five weeks to scramble about and show the public why the NDP should lead Canada. This is also my first election with a specific role: sign coordinator. While it has caused me some stress over the past few days, I am confident that victory is within reach. Randall Garrison can be Esquimalt - Juan de Fuca's next MP, but it will require some hard work. If you want to get involved in the campaign and help elect a progressive voice to Ottawa, you can join us at 1006 Craigflower Avenue in Esquimalt. In fact, if you want to be part of the sign crew, you'll make me very happy.

Polling hasn't changed much on a national level. The Conservatives are sitting in the mid to upper 30's, the opposition Liberals in the mid to upper 20's, the NDP is in the high teens and the Greens are at about 6%. In other provinces though, there have been some serious changes. The most notable being the surge of Liberal support in Alberta, and collapse of NDP support in Atlantic Canada in favour of the governing party. These changes are allowing for some Conservative seat gains, enough for me to predict a majority government for Harper. This would the first elected since 2000, an impressive feat for such a secretive and deceitful ministry. Here's how the seats break down:

Seat Projections

Conservative Party of Canada - 158 seats (+15)

Liberal Party of Canada - 60 seats (-17)

Bloc Quebecois - 52 seats (+3)

New Democratic Party - 37 seats

Independent - 1 seat (-1)

Allow me to repeat this for you: a Conservative majority. Scary right? Yeah, that's why we have to work really hard to ensure that Harper doesn't get his way. It's time we work harder than we ever have on a campaign to ensure that we send a reasonable, competent voice to Ottawa rather than a regressive and silenced Conservative. The task ahead of us is indeed daunting, but together we can achieve anything. Let's get out there and change the world.