Our brothers to the east in Newfoundland and Labrador will elect a new government on October 11th. While there is nearly no question as to who will win (tragically), the second place position could go to either to the Liberals once again, or for the first time, the NDP.The average poll in 2010 had the Progressive Conservatives at 77% support (+7%), the Liberals in second with 16% (-6%), and the NDP in third with 7% (-1%). However, the governing party's support could drop after Kathy Dunderdale's boom in popularity ends following her election as leader. Granted, it most likely will not cause a massive change among the electorate. Danny Williams was a popular fellow, but the question remains: was his party popular, or was he just personally popular?
Recent by-elections have shown a dramatic drop in Liberal support, often to the point of a distant third place finish. Should this trend continue, the opposition might become further silenced or be replaced entirely by the NDP. This coupled with a terribly unorganized Liberal Party; we just might see the opposition turn orange. Hooray for the death of the centre!
It looks like Kathy Dunderdale will lead the Progressive Conservatives to another majority government in 2011. But how big will this majority be?
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