Budget Showdown

Jim Flaherty, the Finance Minister, will present his sixth budget to the House of Commons on March 22nd. If you've been paying any attention to national politics in the past, oh... four or five months, you'll know there is much discussion about this looming confidence vote in Ottawa. If the budget fails to pass, we get an election propped on us. The chances of this happening are very high.

Noting that this is a minority parliament, for the budget to pass it needs the support of another party; in budgets past, this is where the Liberal Party comes in, but based on recent remarks they claim they will vote against the budget regardless of what is contained within it. The Bloc is telling the same story, and after their outrageous demand of four billion dollars for Quebec, they too are out of the question. This leaves the NDP, which has set up demands of a $700 million dollar increase for guaranteed income supplements for seniors, more doctors and nurses, an improved Canada Pension Plan, the reestablishment of the EcoEnergy tax credit and the elimination of the HST/GST off home heating costs. While some progress was made with the Conservatives and doctors, it fell far short from the proposals of the NDP. Since then, Harper's team has been terribly quiet about a possible election.

Once you look at the polls though, then you'll understand why we're doomed to have an election later this year. Most polls have the government way out in front of the opposition, in one case it was sixteen points ahead of the Liberals at 43%. Overall, the Liberals are doing as well as they did in 2008 (which isn't saying much), along with the Bloc. Doing slightly better than the last election are the Greens and Conservatives. The NDP meanwhile has had incredibly contradictory polls some showing an improvement others showing a massive decrease. Any increase for the Tories is good news, especially considering they were terribly close to a majority government in the most recent election. Scary news isn't it?

Harper's all about strategy though. He may be a horrendous PM, but he is a brilliant strategist. The recent sway of public opinion in Ontario is excellent news for "Harper's Government" (ugh) and it is here where they will pick up seats and possibly a majority government. They only need another twelve, and the feat doesn't seem to be so unrealistic. While they haven't gained support anywhere else, they also haven't lost it, another significant accomplishment for the party.

In short, the evidence is growing day by day that the Conservatives will cause an election this spring in order to get that coveted majority. My guess is the death of the budget as early as April Fool's Day (what a cruel joke) with an election either May 2nd or May 9th. Oh politics, you never cease to entertain me.