Well we haven't heard this in a while: the Liberals are going to win an election. No, you do not misread that sentence. The Liberals should win the fall provincial election in Prince Edward Island easily. The governing party should win 26 of 27 seats with the sole remaining electoral district being represented by the leader of the official opposition, Olive Crane of the Progressive Conservatives.
Since 2007, polling hasn't changed much for the top two parties. The Liberals have hovered around the upper fifties and lower sixties for nearly the entire Parliament. The Progressive Conservatives are sticking between the upper twenties and mid thirties. The only significant difference in polling is between the Green Party and the NDP. The social democratic party has gone from a disappointing fourth party finish last election cycle to now their highest level of support in history. It isn't good news though for the Greens - their support has nearly completely evaporated to 1% among the electorate.
Well there you have it - the least exciting provincial election of the year's projections done. Realize that polling numbers will change, and as a result seats may change hands but these projections should be relatively accurate. I'm doing the projections now because when I would normally do them (October) I will be tied up with an election. Until we see the results on October 3rd, I'm out for Prince Edward Island.
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