I won't lie to you, the election in Newfoundland and Labrador later this fall isn't going to be the most exhilarating thing in our lives, at least it appears it'll be that way. As Harold Wilson once said, a week is a long time in politics.
Despite a large upswing for the New Democratic Party which is now sitting at 21% support among the electorate, it appears that won't translate into any new seats. The primary beneficiary of the new found left-wing support will be the Liberals. However, even then it will only mean one new seat. At 57% support (which is down 13 points from 70% in 2007), the Progressive Conservatives stand to win 42 of 48 seats this October. The Liberals at 22%, unchanged since the last cycle stand to win 5 seats. The NDP as mentioned earlier will win the only remaining seat for their leader.
Preliminary projections like this are quite disheartening for anyone seeking to oust the Tories. The only hope for at the least a stronger opposition would be for similar voter trends to those in the 2011 federal election, wherein left-wing Liberals abandoned the party to vote for the NDP. Unless that occurs, it looks were doomed for another four years.
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