The Demise of the Liberals

To start, I would like to apologize for not posting nearly as often as I used to. In part it was because I had issues with posting some time ago, but perhaps most prominently it's been the fact that I haven't really had much to say since the federal election wrapped up. Granted, graduating from high school is also a fair distraction from ranting. My hope is that in time, I will catch up to the actual date, and once again provide commentary on Canadian politics. With so many provincial, and the terribly important local elections this year hopefully the state of affairs will change soon.

If you are a hardcore Liberal these must be tough times for you. The federal election was, well... disastrous. Michael is gone and Bob is in but in between that Liberal support is also dropping ridiculously fast in Alberta, Ontario and Nova Scotia. It's also not looking to great for the Liberals in Newfoundland & Labrador or British Columbia.

Here in BC, Christy Clark has brought her back to 41% support among the populace. Not bad considering her predecessor had the personal support of 9% of the electorate just eight months ago. Right behind them though at 39% is the BC NDP. Two percent is according to Ipsos Reid within the margin of error and half the margin between the government and opposition in 2009. Expect excitement here if Christy calls for a snap election in the fall.

In Ontario, there is little good news for the Liberals. In between devastating losses of their base in Toronto, the governing Ontario Liberals who have severed all ties to the federal party are feeling the pinch from voter over presumably the HST. Nearly every week there are more and more retirement announcements from long standing MPPs. For a party that got 42% of the vote just four years ago they now have 26% support compared to the Progressive Conservatives at 41% (read: government-in-waiting) and the NDP at 22%. Who else wants another NDP opposition to a conservative government?

Alberta, Newfoundland & Labrador and New Brunswick are all in a similar boat. Despite all three provinces containing a very minimal NDP presence in provincial politics, the Liberals are tied with the party in the latest opinion polling. In Alberta we have 15%, in Newfoundland & Labrador we have 21% and in New Brunswick we have 20% despite having zero seats. It's also a bad story in Nova Scotia where the Liberals who won opposition status in 2009 are now below the upswing third party Progressive Conservatives.

Fear not though defiant Liberals - not all is lost! Prince Edward Island is sure to re-elect you this October and Yukon looks like it's ready for a Liberal government after nine years of conservatism. Things are holding steady in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, but in all fairness, that really isn't something to be proud of.

It appears that where centrism is dying as a political flavour, whether it be in the House of Commons, the Atlantic legislatures, Ontario or the Prairies, social democracy is solidifying as its replacement. This may not yet be the end of the Liberals as an effective force, but it sure is looking like it.