Quebec, Are You Feeling Alright?

It's safe to say that 2011 has been the toughest year yet for Quebec separatism. Sure they didn't lose a referendum, but their political strength in the House of Commons and the National Assembly of Quebec has been severely cut down.

First there was that historic federal election on May 2nd which brought the Bloc down to four seats from 48. With that result, they lost official party status and therefore the privilege to participate in Question Period. Since then, they have dropped even further (at one point to 3%) in opinion polling. A leadership election is unscheduled and frankly the party is in disarray.

Meanwhile, provincially, the Parti Quebecois, which is supposed to be the "government-in-waiting" (read: official opposition) lost five members to resignations after a controversal whipped vote. Now, the party nearly everyone (including myself) suspected would win in the next election, looks like it might be doomed to the left side of the chamber for a few more years. Jean Charest is one happy man.

While the movement is hitting some severe roadblocks, don't think Quebec separatism is finished. The Bloc does still hold a lot of support among Quebeckers, and while the PQ isn't looking so hot these days the Quebec solidaire, a sepearatist political party, is experiencing their highest levels of support ever. Even the now independent MNAs who left the PQ are expected to form a new separatist political party this fall. The movement isn't out, it's just down. Although a good old vote split would keep the separatist out of power for probably many years to come. Happy times!

Postal Kerfuffle

The House of Commons has been arguing for nearly a day now against the proposed back to work legislation for Canada Post employees. It's been so long, that they're now bound to break an already established parliamentary record of 27.5 hours of continued debate against a bill.
There really is no better definition of a filibuster. As the speeches continue from the left side of the chamber, it's important we look at the shit (because that's really what it is) emerging from the government.

Stephen Harper and his Conservatives hacks have no right to interfere in union negotiations. Yet to then propose a wage hike that was even less than the demands, that is just barbaric. Worse still, there are no provisions to address the growing number of injuries at the workplace. In short the legislation enshrines exactly what the Conservatives are all about - poor wages for the worker, democratic infringement of basic rights, poor parliamentary standards, and arrogance towards true issues of safety.

The NDP has pledged to continue its filibuster against this dreadful legislation, and could if they used all of their available tools, stretch this fight out until next weekend. Meanwhile the Conservatives are now blaming the world's problems on us, and Bob Rae is attempting to make himself sound relevant. The beauty of this battle though is that for the first time in well, about five years, there actually is an opposition to Stephen Harper, not a yelling match that ends with the reds voting en masse with the blues.

Frankly, this is great. This should happen more often. Let's bring the government to its knees. It's important Stephen understands that a majority is not an excuse for him to do whatever he so pleases. He does not have the mandate of a monarch in feudal times, he has an opposition to listen to, and a real opposition too. This is also a great example to the people of the NDP's commitment to unions, and to fight for all working people.

The Demise of the Liberals

To start, I would like to apologize for not posting nearly as often as I used to. In part it was because I had issues with posting some time ago, but perhaps most prominently it's been the fact that I haven't really had much to say since the federal election wrapped up. Granted, graduating from high school is also a fair distraction from ranting. My hope is that in time, I will catch up to the actual date, and once again provide commentary on Canadian politics. With so many provincial, and the terribly important local elections this year hopefully the state of affairs will change soon.

If you are a hardcore Liberal these must be tough times for you. The federal election was, well... disastrous. Michael is gone and Bob is in but in between that Liberal support is also dropping ridiculously fast in Alberta, Ontario and Nova Scotia. It's also not looking to great for the Liberals in Newfoundland & Labrador or British Columbia.

Here in BC, Christy Clark has brought her back to 41% support among the populace. Not bad considering her predecessor had the personal support of 9% of the electorate just eight months ago. Right behind them though at 39% is the BC NDP. Two percent is according to Ipsos Reid within the margin of error and half the margin between the government and opposition in 2009. Expect excitement here if Christy calls for a snap election in the fall.

In Ontario, there is little good news for the Liberals. In between devastating losses of their base in Toronto, the governing Ontario Liberals who have severed all ties to the federal party are feeling the pinch from voter over presumably the HST. Nearly every week there are more and more retirement announcements from long standing MPPs. For a party that got 42% of the vote just four years ago they now have 26% support compared to the Progressive Conservatives at 41% (read: government-in-waiting) and the NDP at 22%. Who else wants another NDP opposition to a conservative government?

Alberta, Newfoundland & Labrador and New Brunswick are all in a similar boat. Despite all three provinces containing a very minimal NDP presence in provincial politics, the Liberals are tied with the party in the latest opinion polling. In Alberta we have 15%, in Newfoundland & Labrador we have 21% and in New Brunswick we have 20% despite having zero seats. It's also a bad story in Nova Scotia where the Liberals who won opposition status in 2009 are now below the upswing third party Progressive Conservatives.

Fear not though defiant Liberals - not all is lost! Prince Edward Island is sure to re-elect you this October and Yukon looks like it's ready for a Liberal government after nine years of conservatism. Things are holding steady in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, but in all fairness, that really isn't something to be proud of.

It appears that where centrism is dying as a political flavour, whether it be in the House of Commons, the Atlantic legislatures, Ontario or the Prairies, social democracy is solidifying as its replacement. This may not yet be the end of the Liberals as an effective force, but it sure is looking like it.