Ontario '11: A Preview

Barring any other snap elections being called this year (cough, British Columbia, cough) Ontario will join Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Prince Edward Island, Yukon and Newfoundland & Labrador in the long list of provinces holding provincial elections in 2011. Ontario looks like a humdinger too. Who even says humdinger anymore? Anyway, Dalton McGuinty of the Liberals is seeking a third term in office, but it looks like the people won't have it.

In a manner similar to British Columbia (but less dramatic of course), after the Liberals announced the HST their polling numbers began to drop dramatically. The new PC leader, Tim Hudak picked up this enthusiasm for his party. Today, there is a seven point spread between the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives. After holding a lead in the polls since August, it appears Tim Hudak will win the provincial election this October on a theme of change similar to Mike Harris' Common Sense Revolution in 1995. That is smaller government, lower taxes and libertarianism whenever possible.

The NDP also seems to be floating above their 2007 results. In some cases, up to 22% of support. Following the immensely successful federal election, most political analysts agree that the Ontario NDP is poised to make some gains this cycle. The Greens meanwhile, after over a decade of increasing their share of the popular vote, appear to be losing support.

Things look grim for the Liberals in Ontario. A Progressive Conservative majority is now within reach, but with the decline of centre at the provincial level, we can remain hopeful that social democracy will rise up. In the words of Jack Layton, "Together we can do this!"