An election you ask? Stephen Harper's second minority government won't last too much longer. Give it a few more months to live, and then it probably will be the governing caucus themselves that call it. If this were the case, this would be another minority government that lasted further than the average of two years.
Polls for 2010 on average have had the Conservatives at 34% (-4%), the Liberals at 29% (+3%), the Bloc holding steady at 10%, the NDP at 16% (-2%), and the Greens at 10% (+3%). These numbers would suggest a smaller caucus for Harper and company, something along the lines of the 2006 election results (read: 124 seats). However, the Angus Reid polls, which as they have proven, are the most accurate, maintain that support for each party has changed little. Should this be the case, not much would change in number of seats.
By-elections will also soon be called in Manitoba and Ontario. While they will most likely be held by the incumbent parties, it too is a small test of each party's support in said province, and the de jure start of the federal election. Still, there are areas of the country to watch. BC and Ontario both subject to the HST as supported by Harper and Ignatieff just might go orange, while the Atlantic provinces should return to the regular party fold. In other words, a few Conservative losses in the west and central Canada, with gains in the east.
Don't expect a lot of changes in an election, but do indeed expect an election in the spring of 2011. Like every election, it will ask the age old question: people of the world today, are you looking for a better way of life?
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