The only provincial election this year is slowly approaching its September 27th deadline. Yes, the New Brunswick general election of 2010 is just under two months away until voters cast their ballots. The election is a good test of provincial political waters since the 2009 Nova Scotia NDP victory and Liberal strength since sweeping into power in Prince Edward Island three years ago.2006 was the last election in the province where the Liberals got 47% of the vote and 29 seats, while the Progressive Conservatives got 48% of the vote and 26 seats. The NDP meanwhile was unable to win a seat with its new leader and dropped to 5% support. Much has changed since then: the Green Party is now a registered party, along with the right-wing People's Alliance of New Brunswick. They will split the vote on the left-wing and right-wing leaving the centrist Liberals open to winning more seats.
The polls since the last election have had the NDP triple support to just above 15%, the Liberals drop about 10%, the Conservatives drop 5%, and the Greens picking up 5% support. These numbers appear to be solid, but the People's Alliance is excluded due to the fact that no polls have been conducted since its creation, and its validity as a major party is put into question. Still, the Progressive Conservatives will feel any gains made by the People's Alliance this fall, and that could cost them the government.
The Liberal fallout can be attributed to the economic recession response by the province, but perhaps more importantly the proposed sale of NB Power to Hydro-Quebec easily divided the party and its supporters. Even after the deal was announced to have fallen through by March, the Liberals still have yet to regain its popularity before the policy announcement. The Progressive Conservatives didn't really state their position on the issue until the deal was declared null and void, leaving a large wing feeling disenchanted with the party. At least a portion of them went on to form the People's Alliance of New Brunswick. The Greens are the protest vote in this election, while the NDP perhaps feeling a boost of popularity from not only a new leader, their opposition to the NB Power/Hydro-Quebec sale, but also the election and good stories from Nova Scotia in 2009 is the party with the largest amount of positive swing since 2006.
If my methodology is correct (which involves comparing the most recent election results to an average of current polls and adjusting them based on differences), then the Progressive Conservatives should win 30 seats, to the Liberals 24 and one seat for the NDP. Should these results prove to be accurate, that would end the Graham Ministry which has governed New Brunswick since 2006, and remove the Liberals from control by pushing them into opposition status, while the NDP would return to the Legislature with a single seat as the third party.
You read it here first, David Alward, the leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick will be the next Premier of the Province of New Brunswick.
I see you are posting from the west coast, which may explain it, but you have been grossly misled by whoever told you the PCs didn't take a stand on the NB Power sale until it was killed. In fact, the PCs came out against it the day it was announced and never faltered from that position. In fact, much of the criticism of the PC position is that it was too quick to condemn. Also from your blog, you suggest an NDP seat, but fail to say where. Please enlighten.
ReplyDeleteDuncan Matheson
Fredericton, NB
I believe most of the criticism directed to the PCs was because while David Alward came out against it, his party failed to speak out clearly against it. This appears to have been the catalyst for the creation of the People's Alliance: frustration with the other parties due to either a weak response or no response at all. I should have clarified that, my apologies. Also, the sole seat I have the New Brunswick NDP winning would be Miramichi Bay-Neguac at about 38%. However the candidate who ran there in 2006 (Roger Duguay) has moved to Tracadie-Sheila for this September, so unless a strong candidate for the NDP runs there, it is likely that the NDP will not got any seats.
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