Whoa, Nelly!

Right after the 2008 federal election, the government announced that the next election was scheduled to occur no later than 2012, no one believed it, including myself. Considering there were four parties, three of them possibly forming a coalition, and an anxious Conservative Party waiting for a majority, there was no way the 39th Parliament was going to last until 2012. That was 2008, but today in 2010, as we now know, that Parliament has survived the test of time. I am convinced that the next election will in 2012, right as scheduled. Why? Read on and you'll find out.

Conservatives want a majority. They've made that obvious since their 2006 minority victory. I can't blame them, when there is a threat nearly every other day to bring down the government, without an agreement with another party, it's stressful. While it is stressful though, Harper knows that the Liberals are doing awful in the polls lately, and if they wait long enough they could replicate what happened in the 1988 election by 2012. The Conservatives are going to wait until 2012 for an election.

The opposition on the other hand, is not popular with the public. Since the last election Liberals have only been able to pull off slightly better NDP numbers in the region of 26%. No one wants to go into an election with an unpopular leader, and numbers saying you could easily become the third party. The Liberals are going to wait until 2012 for an election.

The NDP and the Bloc don't want an election for the same reason as the Liberals, polling numbers are at the same level as they were two years ago, or are below last elections popular vote shares. The NDP and the Bloc are going to wait until 2012 for an election.

It would be nice if this were the case, a minority government lasting for four years has never happened from what I can remember. Still if anyone is going to drop the writ, it will have been the Conservatives that caused it. So don't get your election face on quite yet, volunteers can relax, but fundraising, fundraising must continue.