How each electoral district would vote in May if Conservatives ran in every riding. Orange represents the New Democratic Party, and red represents the Liberal Party. In this situation, the NDP would win 44 seats, compared to the Liberals 41.
Back in May, the Conservative Party ran 24 candidates in the general election, their highest since 1979 back when they were Progressive. This resulted in the party getting 2% of the vote throughout the province. With that in mind, I am going to bring up a new term: vote splitting. It makes New Democrats cringe, and Liberals smile. In simple terms, vote splitting is basically a choice that votes must make between two parties with relatively similar policies in an election. This often occurs between the New Democratic Party and the Green Party in elections so if 10,000 voters believe in both of the parties policies, half of the people will vote for one party, and the other half will vote for the latter, thus a split. Due to our voting system of First Past the Post, this causes the Liberals who might have a lower number of votes, to win an electoral district. The beautiful thing about the Conservative Party gaining support is that because it supports the same political ideology as the governing Liberal party, if this were to occur, than the New Democrats would win more seats.
Of all the Conservatives that ran in May, they captured on average 18% of the vote, or about 1,984 votes. So for the sake of this rant, let's say that Conservatives ran in every district and captured 18% of the vote and 1,984 votes. If that were the case New Democrats would gain the two closely fought seats of Oak Bay-Gordon Head, and Saanich North and the Islands. We would also pick up Comox Valley, leaving only Parksville-Qualicum as the sole Liberal seat on Vancouver Island. On the mainland, New Dems would pick up Maple Ridge-Mission, Gordon Campbell's riding of Vancouver-Point Grey, Vancouver-Fairview, Vancouver-Fraserview, Burnaby-Lougheed, Burnaby North, newly formed Boundary-Similkameen, and finally in rural BC, Kamloops-North Thompson. Then Carole James would return to the Legislature with 46 seats, enough to form government.
However the epic part about all of this is that we all know the NDP will do much better in the 2013 election, than they did in the 2009 election. The Harmonized Sales Tax can be attributed to the NDP's recent polls in which support is at 45%, Liberal support has dipped 15% to 32%, meanwhile Conservatives are now rivalling the Green party with 12% and 11% support in the latest poll. Overall, the New Democratic Party will win more than 46 seats four Mays from now, a lot more.
Of all the Conservatives that ran in May, they captured on average 18% of the vote, or about 1,984 votes. So for the sake of this rant, let's say that Conservatives ran in every district and captured 18% of the vote and 1,984 votes. If that were the case New Democrats would gain the two closely fought seats of Oak Bay-Gordon Head, and Saanich North and the Islands. We would also pick up Comox Valley, leaving only Parksville-Qualicum as the sole Liberal seat on Vancouver Island. On the mainland, New Dems would pick up Maple Ridge-Mission, Gordon Campbell's riding of Vancouver-Point Grey, Vancouver-Fairview, Vancouver-Fraserview, Burnaby-Lougheed, Burnaby North, newly formed Boundary-Similkameen, and finally in rural BC, Kamloops-North Thompson. Then Carole James would return to the Legislature with 46 seats, enough to form government.
However the epic part about all of this is that we all know the NDP will do much better in the 2013 election, than they did in the 2009 election. The Harmonized Sales Tax can be attributed to the NDP's recent polls in which support is at 45%, Liberal support has dipped 15% to 32%, meanwhile Conservatives are now rivalling the Green party with 12% and 11% support in the latest poll. Overall, the New Democratic Party will win more than 46 seats four Mays from now, a lot more.
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