The Demise of the Liberals

To start, I would like to apologize for not posting nearly as often as I used to. In part it was because I had issues with posting some time ago, but perhaps most prominently it's been the fact that I haven't really had much to say since the federal election wrapped up. Granted, graduating from high school is also a fair distraction from ranting. My hope is that in time, I will catch up to the actual date, and once again provide commentary on Canadian politics. With so many provincial, and the terribly important local elections this year hopefully the state of affairs will change soon.

If you are a hardcore Liberal these must be tough times for you. The federal election was, well... disastrous. Michael is gone and Bob is in but in between that Liberal support is also dropping ridiculously fast in Alberta, Ontario and Nova Scotia. It's also not looking to great for the Liberals in Newfoundland & Labrador or British Columbia.

Here in BC, Christy Clark has brought her back to 41% support among the populace. Not bad considering her predecessor had the personal support of 9% of the electorate just eight months ago. Right behind them though at 39% is the BC NDP. Two percent is according to Ipsos Reid within the margin of error and half the margin between the government and opposition in 2009. Expect excitement here if Christy calls for a snap election in the fall.

In Ontario, there is little good news for the Liberals. In between devastating losses of their base in Toronto, the governing Ontario Liberals who have severed all ties to the federal party are feeling the pinch from voter over presumably the HST. Nearly every week there are more and more retirement announcements from long standing MPPs. For a party that got 42% of the vote just four years ago they now have 26% support compared to the Progressive Conservatives at 41% (read: government-in-waiting) and the NDP at 22%. Who else wants another NDP opposition to a conservative government?

Alberta, Newfoundland & Labrador and New Brunswick are all in a similar boat. Despite all three provinces containing a very minimal NDP presence in provincial politics, the Liberals are tied with the party in the latest opinion polling. In Alberta we have 15%, in Newfoundland & Labrador we have 21% and in New Brunswick we have 20% despite having zero seats. It's also a bad story in Nova Scotia where the Liberals who won opposition status in 2009 are now below the upswing third party Progressive Conservatives.

Fear not though defiant Liberals - not all is lost! Prince Edward Island is sure to re-elect you this October and Yukon looks like it's ready for a Liberal government after nine years of conservatism. Things are holding steady in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, but in all fairness, that really isn't something to be proud of.

It appears that where centrism is dying as a political flavour, whether it be in the House of Commons, the Atlantic legislatures, Ontario or the Prairies, social democracy is solidifying as its replacement. This may not yet be the end of the Liberals as an effective force, but it sure is looking like it.

The Cream Separator

Below is an excellent anecdote first stated by Tommy Douglas in 1944 on his analysis of the capitalist economic system and its failures. The story is relevant to this day and is the basis of NDP policies supporting state intervention. Hope you enjoy it!

"I used to visit farm homes, particularly around meal time, and if I got around dinner time of course, everybody was busy. They were unhitching the horses. They were pumping the water. They were milking the cows. They were pitching down the hay and the oat sheaves. Somebody else was out gathering the eggs. Somebody else was feeding the pigs and the chickens. Everybody had something to do. Even the youngsters were given a job doing something, for instance gathering the eggs or feeding the chickens. And here I was, right off the city streets. I didn't know what to do, and I said "give me something to do." Well, nobody was going to trust this city boy with milking a good cow. They gave me the one job that anybody could do. They gave me the job of turning the handle of the cream separator.

Any of you ever turned the handle on the cream separator? Well it's quite an experience. I got to be quite good at it. I got to the place where I could tell you how many verse of "Onward Christian Soldiers" it takes to put a pan of milk through this thing. And as I was turning the handle and they were pouring in the milk, and I could see the cream come out and the one spout and the skim milk coming out of the other spout, one day it finally penetrated my thick Scotch head that this cream separator is exactly like our economic system.

Here are the primary producers, the farmers and the fishermen and the loggers. They are pouring in the milk. And here are the workers, whether they work on the railroad or go down to the mines or sail ships or work in a store or a bank, or teach school, clerk in the store, work in a hospital. They are the people whose services make the economy go round, and they're turning the handle. So here you have it: primary producer puts in the milk; people who work with hand and brain turn the handle.

And then I thought, but there's another fellow here somewhere. There's a fellow who owns this cream separator. And he's sitting on a stool with the cream spout in his mouth. And the primary producer and the worker take turns on the skim milk spout. And they don't like skim milk. Nobody likes skim milk. And they blame it on each other, and the worker says, "If those farmers and fishermen, you know would work a little harder, well I wouldn't be drinking this skim milk." And the fishermen and the farmer say, "If those workers didn't demand a forty hour week, and didn't want such high wages, I wouldn't have to live on this blue milk." But you know, they're both wrong.

The farmers and the fishermen have produced so much we don't know what to do with it... we've got surpluses of foodstuffs. And the workers, they've produced so well that today nearly a million of them are unemployed. The fault is not with the worker. It is not with the primary producer. The fault is with this machine. The machine was built to give skim milk to the worker and the primary producer, and to give cream to the corporate elite. As a matter of fact, it doesn't always do that because every once in a while this little fellow sitting on the stool with the cream spout in his mouth gets indigestion. And he says, "Boys, stop this machine. We got a recession!" Hey says to the worker, "You're laid off, you can go on unemployment insurance, and after that on welfare." And he says to the farmers and the fishermen, "You know, we don't need your stuff. Take it back home." And then he sits for a while, indigestion gets better, burps a couple of times, says, "Alright boys, start the machine. Happy days are here again. Cream for me and skim milk for both of you."

Now what the democratic socialist party has been saying to Canadians for a long time is that the time has come in this land of ours for the worker and the primary producer to get their hands on the regulator of the machine so that begins to produce homogenized milk in which everybody'll get a little cream."

It's War!

Well, not literally - but figuratively. Seriously though, chances are that if you are on Vancouver Island you've seen a lovely (sarcasm alert) plant bloom lately with the sun finally emerging from beyond the clouds with our late spring. Don't get your hopes up, I'm talking about scotch broom. It's not a lovely feature of Greater Victoria, and it carpets our scenery.

But scotch broom doesn't just sting our retinas, it also leaves huge holes in our wallets. Every year, the weed costs millions of dollars to farmers and the lumber industry. As we all know, a hit to the governments finances, is a hit to our finances. Yet despite this, scotch broom has only gotten heckled. Nearly no action has been taken to combat this invasion. Mill Hill had massive problems with the plant and after years of patience, the problem is now subsiding thanks to a volunteer organized program.

It's cases like this where government action is needed. Hiring seasonal workers through the city to remove invasive plant species would be a huge benefit for the entire community. It would cost far less than simply procrastinating over the issue and beautify public lands. The program would not be short lived however, as seeds can remain dormant for up to a decade. Thus, this would be a watch-and-see initiative, reliant on community input to report any new or untouched patches. But the problem goes beyond the spectrum of just scotch broom.

Other invasive plant species including English Ivy and the Himalayan blackberry also draw us back. The solution lies within a long-term approach involving a by-law prohibiting invasive species such as scotch broom, English Ivy or the Himalayan blackberry on private property. Then it's a matter of hiring seasonal workers paid at living wage through the city to remove invasive species on public property over an extended period. Then, barring any incredible unforeseen variable, with patience and cooperation among other communities, Langford would solve this problem.

Ontario '11: A Preview

Barring any other snap elections being called this year (cough, British Columbia, cough) Ontario will join Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Prince Edward Island, Yukon and Newfoundland & Labrador in the long list of provinces holding provincial elections in 2011. Ontario looks like a humdinger too. Who even says humdinger anymore? Anyway, Dalton McGuinty of the Liberals is seeking a third term in office, but it looks like the people won't have it.

In a manner similar to British Columbia (but less dramatic of course), after the Liberals announced the HST their polling numbers began to drop dramatically. The new PC leader, Tim Hudak picked up this enthusiasm for his party. Today, there is a seven point spread between the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives. After holding a lead in the polls since August, it appears Tim Hudak will win the provincial election this October on a theme of change similar to Mike Harris' Common Sense Revolution in 1995. That is smaller government, lower taxes and libertarianism whenever possible.

The NDP also seems to be floating above their 2007 results. In some cases, up to 22% of support. Following the immensely successful federal election, most political analysts agree that the Ontario NDP is poised to make some gains this cycle. The Greens meanwhile, after over a decade of increasing their share of the popular vote, appear to be losing support.

Things look grim for the Liberals in Ontario. A Progressive Conservative majority is now within reach, but with the decline of centre at the provincial level, we can remain hopeful that social democracy will rise up. In the words of Jack Layton, "Together we can do this!"

Canada '11: The Results

The Conservatives finally won their coveted majority by stealing a vast majority of seats in the Greater Toronto Area from the Liberals. Outside of the GTA, there were very few gains for the governing party of Canada. In fact, they lost nearly half of their seats in Quebec all of which fell victim to the NDP Orange Wave, or as it should be known now, the Orange Crush. Break out the pop ladies and gentlemen! The national results are as follows:

Conservative Party of Canada - 166 seats (+23) with 40% of the vote
New Democratic Party - 103 seats (+66) with 31% of the vote
Liberal Party of Canada - 34 seats (-43) with 19% of the vote
Bloc Quebecois - 4 seats (-44) with 6% of the vote
Green Party of Canada - 1 seat (+1) with 4% of the vote

The results tonight mark the first time the NDP has ever formed the official opposition, and the first time sinking of the Liberals to third place. This is a huge step towards the establish of a two-party system with the Conservatives and Liberals. Michael Ignatieff even lost his own seat, and I wouldn't expect him to be party leader much longer. Gilles Duceppe, who also lost his seat has resigned as leader of the Bloc Quebecois, after receiving its worst election result ever. Its result of four seats, bars it from party status in the House of Commons. Interestingly, the Green Party won their first seat ever in Saanich - Gulf Islands despite their support eroding to half of its 2008 base.

Esquimalt - Juan de Fuca also fell victim to the Orange Crush with Randall Garrison of the NDP elected MP with a margin of 406 votes over Conservative Troy DeSouza. This marks two successful campaigns, and as much as I hate Conservative majority governments, I don't know if I can handle another campaign as sign coordinator, at least initially.

The results before us tonight are incredible. Like most, I have yet to realize the true potential of our party and our message in the future. So many have converted to our cause, so many have been enlightened, the NDP could by the next election form the government. But until then, we will stick to our values and see Jack Layton as leader of the Official Opposition fighting for us each and everyday. Damn were good!

The Orange Wave

Unprecedented. Phenomenal. Amazing. There are plenty of words you can use to describe the massive surge of support for the NDP since this election began. In British Columbia, we are at 39% support, the prairies have us gaining 2% since the 2008 election. Ontario has us at 27%, while the Atlantic is up 22% to 46% support. Finally, Quebec the lovely province that it is, now boasts the NDP as their first party with 45%, a swing of 33% since the last election.

Overall, these numbers mean good things for the party, social democracy and Canada. Really good things in fact. In fact you could go on to say these polls are unprecedented, phenomenal or amazing. We might as well call those the words of the day. Now, as lovely as votes are, the true measure of importance in our political system is seats. The new seat projections for the NDP are fucking beautiful. As high as 100 seats could be captured by the NDP, most of which falling victim to the Orange Wave in Quebec. It appears we could win a majority of all seats in Quebec, or in our best case scenario, strip the Bloc Quebecois of its party status in the House of Commons. All very good things.

100 seats would easily mean we are the Official Opposition for the first time in Canadian history. MPs from all across Canada: the east, the west, the north, young, and old, all fighting for a prosperous and green Canada where no one is left behind. What a wonderful world we live in. We may not form the government this time around, but with the way things are going, the next election doesn't seem so far off. After all, the Official Opposition is considered the government in waiting...

Campaign Update #4 - EJDF

We are in the home stretch Canada! All of the big signs in Esquimalt - Juan de Fuca are up, and the final preparations for Election Day are beginning. If you want to help, please don't hesitate to call the campaign. Seriously, we need your help. Don't let anyone tell you that this riding won't be close, or for that matter that we won't win. We can do this; we just have to work together.

At first, I must admit, this campaign was quite lackluster. I was hoping for some NDP gains, but it was viewed mostly as a battle between a Conservative minority or majority. Then Quebec woke up and smelt the coffee, and everything changed. Now I am looking forward to Monday night to the prospect of the NDP making significant gains especially in Quebec. Maybe Esquimalt - Juan de Fuca will fall under the Orange Wave as well.

It is inspiring to see so many Canadians embracing social democracy all across this great nation. If we can continue to build on that momentum and deliver it on Monday, we just might see Mr. Jack Layton in the Prime Minister's Office.

Fiscal Prudency

The largest problem for nearly every government past, present or future is finances. It's tough enough to balance the family budget, let alone the governments. It's difficult finding a balance between taxation, social services and the always fluctuating market that is the economy. By diverting funds away from unnecessary projects that will do little to improve our society as a whole, saving cash whenever available, and introducing new social services slowly, every government can achieve and remain in the black ink.

Part of the problem for Langford is a focus on business, and not people. While this can (and in this case does) lead to problems with democracy and environmental preservation it also hurts the city's cheque books. No government should have a debt, or if it does, it should have a transitional plan for it to avoid making repayments decades into the future. Does Langford have one? It doesn't appear so.

To begin a fiscally responsible period in our city's history, we should review the size, effectiveness and cost of city administration. Nothing may come of it, but it is very important to understand how much of the city budget is attributed to organization and the day to day functions of a city. Further investigation should look into (if possible) making better use of our taxpayer's money. Next, we should avoid wasting money on facilities and projects the electorate failed to ask for. That means our many sports fields, and Goldstream Avenue "beautification" was a huge waste of money. In the future, unless we discover gold under every home in Langford, we should think twice before giving the stamp of approval to every flashy, but lacking in substance initiative.

Within only a few quick and painless steps, we have already saved the city millions of dollars. These "new" funds should be put towards a variety of sources. A portion should be put towards emergency preparedness immediately, along with pedestrian safety features near parks, schools and other community centres. The later plan would be only required for one budget, the next progress report on our finances wouldn't require such measures. Next, we should pass a living wage in our community. With the policy in place we should rehire community based policing officers and youth to remove invasive plant species on crown land throughout the city seasonally. Supporting the Goldstream Food Bank should also be placed high on our priority list. Further money should be put towards expanding Langford Trolley service, integrating bicycle lanes and trails, and a bicycle sharing system. Finally, with anything left over, we should invest in the Emily Carr WestShore Performing Arts & Education Centre and other cultural events.

Barring a discovery of fail whale fiscal management and subsequently mass amounts of surplus cash, it's likely that this won't be achieved in one year. To avoid further sinking into debt by divulging translucent cash into these points, one would be wise to immediately begin those cost-saving measures, and slowly transition into this blueprint. Should further problems still remain, a hike in the business tax rate should not be taken off the table.

Supporting families during times of discord, new public safety features, environmental endeavours, cultural advocacy and a sense of organization for times when our wildest fears become reality. It's all under this very social democratic budget in progress. How about you adopt it Langford?

The Red & Orange

There are plenty of opinion polls out there. The most trustworthy of firms has proven over and over again to be Angus Reid Public Opinion. So when Jack Layton woke up a few days ago and saw that the latest Angus Reid poll had the NDP tied with the Liberals at 25% support, he was pleasantly surprised. For the first time in nearly twenty years, the NDP is tied in support with the opposition Liberals. The last time this happened, it wasn't during an election campaign, so these are very promising signs.

It's evidence like this that support the development of a two-party system in our federal political scene between the NDP and Conservatives in the near future. Of course, the true test will be if such results hold until May 2nd. Although with a clear surge in support for the social democratic party in Quebec beginning to solidify, we could very well see the NDP overtake the Liberals in popular vote, and perhaps most importantly in terms of number of seats. One is receding its support across the nation, the other is taking its place and could be directly opposite the government come the reconvening of Parliament.

A further possibility, one that makes New Democrats giddy is a coalition government between the Liberals and NDP should Stephen Harper fail once again in his quest for a majority. Recent opinion polling suggest a minimal drop in support for the Conservatives since 2008, which would once again see a minority government. The thought of Jack Layton in the Prime Minister's Office makes me feel light headed. Let's hope it formulates ladies and gentlemen!

Determined Dix

Yesterday Adrian Dix was elected the new leader of the BC NDP. I'm not going to lie to you - this election was disappointing for me. My preference for leader was John Horgan, and what with his real momentum going into the convention, I had high hopes that he might be able to pull off a victory. Still, I am completely behind Adrian Dix as we head into a new era of BC politics. Below are the results of the leadership contest in Vancouver.

First Ballot

Adrian Dix - 7,683 (38%)

Mike Farnworth - 6,979 (35%)

John Horgan - 4,844 (24%)

Dana Larsen - 531 (3%)

Second Ballot

Adrian Dix - 7,748 (39%)

Mike Farnworth - 6,951 (35%)

John Horgan - 5,034 (26%)

Third Ballot

Adrian Dix - 9,772 (52%)

Mike Farnworth - 9,095 (48%)

This election will bring about the reassembly of the legislature, and the need for a by-election soon. There is also a possibility a general election will be called by the fall, especially if the Liberals believe they have a good chance against Adrian, which judging by the rhetoric, they do. Either way, the BC NDP based on the atmosphere of the election appears to be quite united and ready to fight for social democracy whenever those writs are issued. Onwards and upwards we go!

Campaign Update #3 - EJDF

The debates are over, and the voting intentions are now starting to shift. An Angus Reid poll found the NDP tied with the Liberals for second place at 25% support. Even the thought of us possibly forming the official opposition makes me feel light headed. Why is there this shift? Perhaps more Canadians are reaching that epiphany that social democracy is best for our world. Perhaps Jack Layton's stash is wooing them, maybe the Bloc has run one of the worst campaigns in it's history, either way, things are going well for the NDP in the opinion polling department. Angus Reid isn't only either, many other polls are also telling similar stories to this. One can only imagine how this will affect the seat projections on May 2nd.

As for Esquimalt - Juan de Fuca, local debates are underway, and lawn signs are littering the electoral district. The momentum building in Quebec that is being labelled "The Orange Wave" is affecting us here, as Randall gains momentum. Candidate profiles are in the paper, and there is a sense of awareness about this election eerily absent from the 2008 campaign. Let's hope and pray that translates into a higher voter turnout that the last elections atrocious statistic.

All of the platforms have been released, warnings of satanic coalitions are aplenty, and hope is also hovering over the people of Quebec. This is going to be an interesting election!

Randall Recommendation

Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca has six candidates this election standing to become our Member of Parliament. Among them stands a man who represents progressive values and positive results that will improve Canada, not degrade it. He stands for a Canada where equality is more than just a word; it is an expression of our rights. He stands for a universal health care system funded by the public. He believes that the time has passed for us to do nothing about the environment. That candidate is Randall Garrison of the New Democratic Party.

Randall Garrison isn't new to the political arena. He ran in 2004 and 2006 finishing a close second to now retiring MP Keith Martin. He later ran for a seat on Esquimalt Council in 2008 and was elected. There he has fought for government accountability by forcing government votes to be recorded, economic action by passing the second living wage policy in Canada, and environmental sustainability by establishing a community garden and the Environment Sustainability Fund.

He's now standing to fight for more doctors and nurses for your family. He's ready to fight for light rail transit on the south Island. He's ready to lift every child and senior out of poverty. Randall Garrison is to be your voice in Ottawa. It's high time we elected him. On May 2nd vote NDP for a prosperous and green Canada where no one is left behind.