Clark's Cabinet

Christy Clark is our Premier (shudder) and her new cabinet is ready to lead to the province to... well, they say prosperity. Let's see how the cabinet posts play out:

Government House Leader - Rich Coleman
Deputy Government House Leader - Terry Lake
Minister of Aboriginal Relations & Reconciliation - Mary Polak
Minister of Advance Education - Naomi Yamamoto
Minister of Agriculture - Don McRae
Minister of Children & Family Development - Mary McNeil
Minister of Community, Sport & Cultural Development - Ida Chong
Minister of Energy & Mines - Rich Coleman
Minister of Environment - Terry Lake
Minister of Forests, Lands & Natural Resource Operations - Steve Thomson
Minister of Health - Mike de Jong
Minister of Jobs, Tourism & Innovation - Pat Bell
Minister of Labour, Citizens' Services & Open Government - Stephanie Cadieux
Minister of Public Safety & Solicitor-General - Shirley Bond
Minister of Social Development - Harry Bloy
Minister of Transportation & Infrastructure - Blair Lekstrom

Where to begin? Oh, I know! Colin Hansen is now completely out of cabinet! Hooray! But wait there's more! Margaret MacDiarmid the Education Minister who so refused to hand over cash for a new high school on the WestShore, leadership candidate Moira Stilwell and open mouth, insert foot member Kevin Krueger was also left without a flashy new title. One of the only newcomers meanwhile is Harry Bloy (how convenient seeing as he was the only MLA to endorse Christy).

Clark's cabinet is also smaller than Campbell's. I'm not opposed to this, as this is a reduction of five members since Campbell's most recent "reshuffling" of the Executive Council back in October. My issue with all of this is the fact that the same clowns sitting at Campbell's Executive Council simply having a different title and are now sitting at Clark's Executive Council. Yet what's the media response to all of this? Applause and respect. Let's face the facts ladies and gentlemen: not a whole lot has changed, not the people, not the vision, not the leadership.

Newfoundland & Labrador '11: A Preview

Our brothers to the east in Newfoundland and Labrador will elect a new government on October 11th. While there is nearly no question as to who will win (tragically), the second place position could go to either to the Liberals once again, or for the first time, the NDP.

The average poll in 2010 had the Progressive Conservatives at 77% support (+7%), the Liberals in second with 16% (-6%), and the NDP in third with 7% (-1%). However, the governing party's support could drop after Kathy Dunderdale's boom in popularity ends following her election as leader. Granted, it most likely will not cause a massive change among the electorate. Danny Williams was a popular fellow, but the question remains: was his party popular, or was he just personally popular?

Recent by-elections have shown a dramatic drop in Liberal support, often to the point of a distant third place finish. Should this trend continue, the opposition might become further silenced or be replaced entirely by the NDP. This coupled with a terribly unorganized Liberal Party; we just might see the opposition turn orange. Hooray for the death of the centre!

It looks like Kathy Dunderdale will lead the Progressive Conservatives to another majority government in 2011. But how big will this majority be?

Budget Showdown

Jim Flaherty, the Finance Minister, will present his sixth budget to the House of Commons on March 22nd. If you've been paying any attention to national politics in the past, oh... four or five months, you'll know there is much discussion about this looming confidence vote in Ottawa. If the budget fails to pass, we get an election propped on us. The chances of this happening are very high.

Noting that this is a minority parliament, for the budget to pass it needs the support of another party; in budgets past, this is where the Liberal Party comes in, but based on recent remarks they claim they will vote against the budget regardless of what is contained within it. The Bloc is telling the same story, and after their outrageous demand of four billion dollars for Quebec, they too are out of the question. This leaves the NDP, which has set up demands of a $700 million dollar increase for guaranteed income supplements for seniors, more doctors and nurses, an improved Canada Pension Plan, the reestablishment of the EcoEnergy tax credit and the elimination of the HST/GST off home heating costs. While some progress was made with the Conservatives and doctors, it fell far short from the proposals of the NDP. Since then, Harper's team has been terribly quiet about a possible election.

Once you look at the polls though, then you'll understand why we're doomed to have an election later this year. Most polls have the government way out in front of the opposition, in one case it was sixteen points ahead of the Liberals at 43%. Overall, the Liberals are doing as well as they did in 2008 (which isn't saying much), along with the Bloc. Doing slightly better than the last election are the Greens and Conservatives. The NDP meanwhile has had incredibly contradictory polls some showing an improvement others showing a massive decrease. Any increase for the Tories is good news, especially considering they were terribly close to a majority government in the most recent election. Scary news isn't it?

Harper's all about strategy though. He may be a horrendous PM, but he is a brilliant strategist. The recent sway of public opinion in Ontario is excellent news for "Harper's Government" (ugh) and it is here where they will pick up seats and possibly a majority government. They only need another twelve, and the feat doesn't seem to be so unrealistic. While they haven't gained support anywhere else, they also haven't lost it, another significant accomplishment for the party.

In short, the evidence is growing day by day that the Conservatives will cause an election this spring in order to get that coveted majority. My guess is the death of the budget as early as April Fool's Day (what a cruel joke) with an election either May 2nd or May 9th. Oh politics, you never cease to entertain me.

The Second Clark Era

Yesterday was... interesting.

To start, the voting process used yesterday for the BC Liberals could have gone far better. Many members complained they hadn't received their PIN required for voting. This can be seen with the fairly low voter turnout in the election: 62%. Still, the first round results came in with a big lead for Christy, and de Jong was eliminated. In the second ballot, Abbott was eliminated, and Christy's lead grew. Finally, on the third ballot, Christy won the leadership of the party but with only 52% of the vote. You can see the detailed results of the election below.

First Ballot:
1. CLARK, Christy (3,209 points/38%)
2. FALCON, Kevin (2,411 points/28%)
3. ABBOTT, George (2,091 points/25%)
4. DE JONG, Mike (789 points/9%)

Second Ballot:
1. CLARK, Christy (3,575 points/42%)
2. FALCON, Kevin (2,564 points/30%)
3. ABBOTT, George (2,361 points/28%)

Third Ballot:
1. CLARK, Christy (28,411 votes/52%)
2. FALCON, Kevin (26,119 votes/48%)

With that, Ms. Christy Clark is now the Premier-designate of British Columbia. The results however show a divided party. Nearly right down the middle, the free-enterprise coalition is split between Falcon and Clark. While all candidates speak of coming together and uniting under the leader, it is important to remember that only one MLA supported Clark. A divided caucus and a divided party membership - it's going to be a fun time for Christy back in the capital.

The new premier has a substantial amount of challenges ahead of her. Her first priority, politically, should be to establish a new cabinet complete with former opponents to head this "new era" in British Columbia. By doing this, she could also reunite the caucus, although she must seek a seat (Vancouver-Point Grey) if she wishes to involve herself in the legislative debate in Victoria. While she has flip-flopped already, her stance to work towards improving the relationship between the party and the people is her best hope for keeping her newly found job beyond 2013.

Legislatively, I have no idea what her first priority is. Again, she personally can't introduce anything until she has a seat, but one of her Ministers can. Perhaps Family Day or detailing how the budget will be spent is in the cards. It's my guess that little to no environmental legislation will be passed any time soon considering she failed to address the issue adequately during the campaign.

Some say that Ms. Clark will spark growth in the Conservatives, and while it is possible, we will have to wait for some bad public policy or a gaffe of some sort for that to happen. If anything, this affects the NDP most, and it's ongoing leadership election, which concludes in mid-April. For any NDP leader, this result is great as Clark has been frequently commented as big on image, but shallow on policy. A great debate is coming up ladies and gentlemen!

There are a lot of unknowns in BC politics right now. As of now, British Columbia's best hope for political progress would be non-partisan issues. Think the Water Act and other, not so hot-button topics. Still, I wish Christy Clark well as she guides are province. We may disagree in policy, but we share one thing in common: we both want a better British Columbia.

Promises, Promises

With only a few hours left until BC Liberals from across the province vote for their new leader, one can assume that all of the candidates have said all they are going to say. So, without further ado, here are the profiles on each candidate and how they intend to make British Columbia suffer for the next two years with conservatism should they become the next Premier.

George Abbott is the most left-wing of all candidates. Most of his policies present small concessions to basic NDP demands for over a decade. These include raising the minimum wage, moving up the HST referendum date, restoring arts and culture funding, and combating child poverty. These are things progressive individuals can all agree on, and yet most other candidates have failed to state they would enact these principles. Mr. Abbott is the most distant (policy wise) from Gordon Campbell, although some of the policies he is proposing, when put forward as a Minister, he voted against. Opportunism perhaps? For New Democrats, he is our best hope for some positive change before the next election under the guise of the BC Liberals.

Christy Clark is the charismatic candidate in the race. Many said she was all image, and no substance, and boy were they right. The two most significant pledges she has made since December have been online voting and creating Family Day. Besides this, she has the classic platform about putting families first while also supporting the economy. While she wasn't there for the HST vote, she was in government for the first term of Mr. Campbell's government. Finally, her most prominent supporter isn't even an MLA, it's former broadcaster Pamela Martin, which doesn't say much at all. Still, she is the front runner, and very well could be the next Premier of British Columbia.

Kevin Falcon is terribly business-savvy. If you were part of the staggering 9% that still supported Mr. Campbell back in November 2010, then this is your guy. Giving teachers pay based on merit, moving the HST referendum up, placing economic development priority in the interior and keeping secrecy in Victoria are all key points. He also claims to make some changes to our health care system, consider lowering the HST to 10% and invest in future generations. With remarks like that, you would think he would actually care for the well being of British Columbian families. He, along with Mr. Abbott has taken a vast majority of the MLAs endorsements including Deputy Premier and Minister of Finance Colin Hansen.

If anyone is going to be spoiler in this contest, it's going to be Mike de Jong. Mr. de Jong has been awfully silent during the campaign. However, pledges to lower the voting age, increase the minimum wage and create a smaller cabinet aren't bad policy. However, has no support from cabinet or caucus either. While it's expected he will come in fourth, the second preference of his voting bloc will most likely give a candidate the votes they need to become the first minister of the province.

While I'm no political scientist, my guess is for Christy Clark to become the next Premier. I say this simply because British Columbia has a proud history of falling in love with politicians with plenty of charisma, and policy second. Besides, while her lead is shrinking, she still is at the head of the pack after a nearly three month campaign. If not her, I would expect Mr. Abbott. We'll have to wait until tomorrow to see who is setting the agenda for this great province next. I for one am not excited at all.

The BC Refederation Party

Fringe parties from all over the political spectrum wish to draw attention to a particular issue by one of the larger political entities. While it is often to no avail due to odd requests (proclaiming Valentine's Day as a holiday or making a laughing army of Swedish clowns to spread laughter globally), at times the issues they bring up are justifiable. The BC Refederation Party has its heart in the right place, but their specific policies appear illegal based on the Constitution of Canada and/or unsupported by evidence.

The BC Refed plan is quite simple really: in fact they put it into a lovely three-step process for us all. The "1,2,3 Plan" as taking from the official BC Refederation Party's official website is as follows:

1. Installing a BC Constitution placing the people as the ultimate authority, rather than the Premier-chosen Lieutenant Governor.

2. In that BC Constitution, giving the people an optional veto over Victoria legislation, and workable recall

3. From that BC Constitutional power, renegotiating with Ottawa our provincial rights unlawfully invaded by the federal charter.

To start, there is a technical error in the first point; the Lieutenant Governor is not chosen by the Premier, rather the Prime Minister. Also, a BC Constitution if enacted would appear to be at most only ceremonial, as the federal constitution if in contrast with it, would supersede it and affix any differences between the two. An "optional veto" over Victoria legislation sounds awfully close to the initiative legislation already in place, granted it does need some refining to truly give people the power to veto. The same law also provides for recall opportunities of elected officials, and while it too needs adjustment, we must avoid keeping the process from being overly simplistic. Finally, seeing as this BC Constitution is only symbolic and contains no political change, just talk, we would be in no further position to negotiate with Ottawa over equalization payments we agreed to support. In essence, we would be no further ahead then, than we are now.

Even if all of this could be achieved, we still fail to get positive results on the important issues we need solved now. That includes action on health care, crown corporations, our tax system, education, the environment and so much more. However, I do understand that democratic reforms must be placed quickly to ensure that the people have the power forever always. Once again though, the problem isn't our system, it's the people within it.

Vote Early, Vote Often

In a parliamentary democracy like Canada, voting is essential for our nation to move forward. All across our great nation, the voter turnout has consistently been dropping regardless of province. In the rare exception where it does increase, it is often only temporary. With at times less than 50% showing up at the polls, the true election results aren't being conveyed through to the legislature.

A higher voter turnout can easily sway the results of an election, just go ask Naheed Nenshi. It's understood that some are dissatisfied with the current system, but only by making you voice heard can you ever change it, so why wouldn't you? Failing to vote doesn't really benefit anyone. The voters may not get the government the majority they want because you and your friends decided to twiddle your thumbs on voting day. As cliche as it sounds, your vote can make the difference; take for example the 2009 election in BC, just 2,300 votes spread over 8 ridings would have allowed the NDP to form the government. The voter turnout there was barely half of the electorate. Where were you on May 12th?

Overall though, always remember that if you don't vote, you can't complain about the current political system. If you choose to do nothing, you have no right to bitch about how much you hate it. Next time, vote then argue with our elected officials. Brave individuals fought and died on the beaches in Europe for this right, so at least take the five minutes every few years to hop in the car, or better yet walk, shuffle behind that box and vote damn it!

The importance of voting is enormous. Get out there and vote the next opportunity you get it. A trip to the local elementary school or community hall will only take a small part out of your day, yet the implications are enormous. A better Canada is a democratic Canada; be a part of it.

The Egyptian Revolution of 2011

To begin, I must congratulate the people of Egypt this evening. Through a non-violent struggle stretching over an 18 day period, they have ended the 30 year regime of Hosni Mubarak. While over 300 individuals have paid the ultimate price, they have not died in vain. They will always be remembered in Egypt's struggle towards democracy after decades of oppression. Today's events however have far reaching affects not only in the Middle East, but also internationally.

Egypt has long been the de facto leader of the Arab World, and while its role during the Mubarak administration diminished in influence, the recent actions have reaffirmed the country's role within the region - that is on top. Ahmadinejad may not be happy about this, but deflating his bubble of self-illusion would be a great service to the globe. It's also likely that this revolution will change Egypt's relationship with the United States. I would expect a significantly reduced American influence in Egyptian life very quickly. The protesters in Cairo and other large cities pleaded for isolationism, and who can blame them? Internal affairs should be dealt with internally. It is only through international pleas that foreign powers should get involved, perhaps in the observation of those upcoming elections.

The only other democracy in the region is Israel, and even then it has been described by the Democracy Index as being "flawed." If Egypt hopes to achieve true democracy, the elections this September in the country must be free and fair. To start, they should follow Tunisia's lead and release political prisoners along with allowing opposition political parties to become registered. It's also likely that numerous constitutional changes will be required for this new Egypt to take hold. The system they choose should reflect the wants of the lower and middle-classes, to avoid future protracted struggles.

Finally, a change to Egypt's social and economic structure is all but guaranteed. During the uprising, Christian and Muslims cooperated in the name of one common goal. In fact, they protected each other during their separate prayer services. It was quite inspiring, to see for once religion uniting individuals, not stirring division. With this, a new religious dialogue could begin soon, perhaps even causing the establishment of secularism. The power is not held by the thin minority of wealth businessmen, military personnel and senior politicians rather hard-working families all across the nation. They have proven it for the past three weeks, and a stable government free of corruption will improve the social standing and financial well-being of the North African nation. Can anyone say "economic boom"?

The events in Egypt, and more generally the Arab World are immense in their change, speed and significance. If this revolution continues, Jordan, Syria and Yemen are likely to be the next nations to seriously challenge their respective governments in much the same reasoning as the Tunisian and Egyptian people: high food prices, unemployment, censorship, corruption, and a lack of political freedom. Whether or not civil unrests similar to those in Tahrir Square since mid-January will take place in Amman, Damascus and Sana'a has yet to be seen, but I wouldn't count it out. I guess the domino theory isn't completely inaccurate...

The Tools of Democracy

Despite some recent criticism directed towards the recall of elected officials from public office, it along with initiative is one of the most important advancements of democracy in our province. Without the possibility of recalling individuals or influencing public policy in our political system through a large-scale petition drive, we suffer the possibility of arrogance and disrespect from our representatives with little chance until the next election.

With that said though, voters in civic elections do not have this option. In Langford even if politicians failed to consult us before policy decisions whether it concern the environment, finances, or public safety, even if they disregard the public's opposition or worry to legislation before they even hear it, even if they hide away their true voting intentions through the guise of a city council lacking transparency, we still have to wait for their mandate to expire. Oh, wait they do that already...

How do we solve this problem you ask? Well, it would take a considerable amount of time to set up through legislation and preparation, but we should establish both recall and initiative at the local level in our community based on current provincial law regarding the matter with some minor tweaks to ensure true democracy is within the hands of all Langford citizens. For this to occur, a change would have to occur at the provincial level through a new bill. After which, the most significant changes to recall should be the ability to begin a recall petition within a year of election not the current 18 months, and allowing all registered voters to take part as opposed to all registered voters in time at the last election. While a major change to initiative should require a referendum on the vote if approved to be enacted into law regardless of politicians' opposition to the legislation.

It is only with recall and initiative at the local level that citizens can not only expect but demand good government from our public officials from beyond the confines of the voting booth once every few years. We need recall and initiative not just in Langford but throughout all municipalities for true democracy to reign through the land.

The C-Word

In parliamentary democracies like ours, a minority legislature can happen. In cases when it does, the largest party often looks toward forming a government with the third or fourth largest party. If it is formal, this is a coalition. Back in late 2008, and early 2009, there was much discussion over whether or not the proposed Liberal-NDP coalition with Bloc support was legal. Yes it was and here's why.

Ultimately, the only thing that will change a government is not votes, but rather the confidence of the House. Take for example the 2008 debacle. The Conservatives won a large minority with 143 seats. The Liberals, NDP and Bloc Quebecois lost. Then Liberal leader Stephane Dion proposed a coalition government with the NDP complete with support from the Bloc. Together they had 163 seats, a majority. To form a government in such a manner is not illegal.

The Conservatives though shit their pants when they heard word of this. Power could have ripped from their hands that easily. But what Mr. Harper neglects to tell you is that back in 2004, Harper proposed a coalition to form the government with the support of the Bloc Quebecois and NDP. It came to nothing, but it shows that for a man to claim that a coalition is "undemocratic" and will "destroy Canada", he was willing to participate in one a few years before too.

Whoever has the confidence of the House has the right to form a government whether it be provincial, territorial or federal. Should another coalition be proposed following the next federal government remember that it's not illegal, and Harper wanted one before he was PM.

Saskatchewan '11: A Preview

The province that elected the first social democratic government in North America is also heading to the polls later this year. Saskatchewan has been governed by the Saskatchewan Party since 2007, and is seeking its first re-election bid under the leadership of Premier Wall, while the Official Opposition is led by Dwain Lingenfelter of the New Democratic Party. At this point in time, the election doesn't appear to be that close.

As painful as it is to say this, the Saskatchewan Party looks like it will be able to pull off another victory on November 7th. In fact, it appears the NDP may lose its current number of seats in favour of the governing party. A few MLAs have made it clear they do not intend to stand for re-election this cycle, and it is those incumbents' seats that are most likely to change hands. Everything else should stay in their respective columns.

Polling, while quite sporadic, has the governing party on average 59% support, while the NDP is at 29%, the two of which have traded 8% since the last election. The Liberals are sitting pretty close to their previous results at about 9%, while the Greens have nearly hit the 5% mark.

With that said though, both parties should be congratulated for nominating a large amount of candidates far before the election is held, unlike New Brunswick. The voters' knowing who is carrying the local party banner long before the writs are dropped is essential for the electorate to make an informed decision on election day.

Premier Brad Walls personal popularity is one of the highest in the country, and it is this alone that could easily allow his party to drift to victory in November. Saskatchewan is a good example of the right-wing coalition uniting to defeat the NDP. It is working today, but soon it too will fail in the citizens' quest for good government.

Amalgamation

Greater Victoria has thirteen individual municipalities that together serve about 330,000 people compared to the one municipality of Vancouver representing over 600,000 people. The logical question for Victoria residents is - why not amalgamate? Unfortunately, some municipalities have recently engaged in public battles over taxation. This, along with disagreements on light rail transit and sewage treatment have resulted in strained relations. They've degraded so much that some have suggested breaking up the Capital Regional District.

It's likely that at some point, amalgamation will occur. Granted, it will be a long time until that day comes. The initial steps towards amalgamation would require synchronizing by-laws and emergency services. Still, I wouldn't expect all municipalities to merge together at one time. It's likely the Western Communities, Saanich Peninsula municipalities and the core communities would coexist before we all united under one city council.

The arguments for amalgamation are valid. Most point to a lack of efficiency with the current system and unnecessary bureaucracy. Barriers to amalgamation would be improving relations between municipalities to begin a dialogue on the situation and the size of city council. If amalgamation were to occur, provincial legislation, much like the Vancouver Charter would have to be created making provisions on the number of councillors for Victoria, and if a ward system was to be created along with other regulations.

Amalgamation has been done before in other large municipalities across Canada, and just as in our situation, it has nearly always been a protracted issue. It'll be a long road until then but eventually I would expect us to be under only one municipal government.