December 27, 2010

2010: A Year in Review

2010 could have been a lot better politically. It was mostly a year to just step back and ask yourself, "What is going on?" The WTF moments weren't just restricted to BC politics either; nearly every region of the country had some truly bizarre events occur over the course of only 365 days. To start, we'll go the West Coast.

The HST hatred didn't hold up this year in BC. As the bill was introduced the NDP fought it, and in response the Liberals used time allocation (restricting of debate) in order to pass the bill in time, something they said they wouldn't do once in office. Later, a FOI (freedom of information) request showed the BC government was in discussions with Ottawa over introducing the HST before the election! It was great timing too, what with the HST initiative collecting signatures and all. On a positive note, it was the first initiative in provincial history to met the Elections BC requirements since the Recall & Initiative Act was introduced in 1995. Still, inside the government the problems were enormous. As BC Liberal polling numbers were free falling, Kash Heed resigned as Solicitor General after "oddities" were discovered having influenced his Vancouver-Fraserview campaign during the 2009 election. Blair Lekstrom later resigned from cabinet and caucus in June over the manner the HST was introduced. To add to that, the budget had the largest deficit in provincial history as well, after Mr. Hansen failed to find $4,000,000,000 in funding. If you want the true definition of a "fudge-it budget" look no further. Eventually, Gordon Campbell succumbed to the pressure from inside and outside his party by announcing his resignation as Premier. This too though caused a Liberal leadership race to begin causing five candidates to put their names forward, one of which will be the next to lead the province. Over in the BC NDPs wings, things were going well until the bitter end of the year. In October, Bob Simpson was removed from the caucus for publicly objecting to Carole James' leadership, this caused two more resignations from within the party (caucus whip and caucus chair), raising questions about her leadership. Eventually, a leadership vote was held with 84% in support of her leadership, but still a group of 12 MLAs voiced their opposition to Carole. Later in December, Ms. James too announced her resignation as leader. Today, we find ourselves with two leadership races going on, one for the BC Liberals, the other for the BC NDP, with the Greens gaining some support from the electorate, and the BC Conservatives becoming a real threat at about 8% support. There is never a dull moment in British Columbia.

Alberta's Progressive Conservatives also have had a bad year. After a huge deficit and appalling reversals of policies, their polling numbers have dropped from the low 50's to the low 30's. Worse still, its main competitor, the Wildrose Alliance, shares the same ideology as the government, making it tough to differentiate between the two. Despite some PC Party MLAs resigning to sit as Independents or to join the Wildrose Alliance, it does still hold a very thin lead in the polls. The Liberals though have also lost support, with the NDP as the main beneficiary. Finally, the Alberta Party (having been taken over by ex-Green Party supporters) has merged with Renew Alberta, giving it a new centrist ideology. These are exciting times for Alberta, since 1971 it has had the PC Party in government, perhaps 2013 will mark the beginning of a new political dynasty for the province.

Saskatchewan appears to be enjoying its government thus far. Despite the blatant privatization of crown corporations, budget deficits and flip-flopping, the people are sitting pretty with the Saskatchewan Party unfortunately. The governing party's polling numbers have lifted up to about 58% to the NDP's 29% at least as of early November, granted with a name like Sigma Analytics, it's validity as a legitimate polling resource should be questioned. Manitoba meanwhile has been observing the positive results of a social democratic government: quality health care, education and crown corproations with government integrity and one of the lowest deficits and unemployment rates in the country. I'm green with envy Manitoba, I really am. What's confusing me though, is the NDP's drop in support. As of now, the party is about 4% behind the PC Party. Often, one can identify a reason or reasons behind the drop, but not in this case. If anyone wants to fill me in on why everyone wants a right-wing government again over there, please don't hesitate to comment. Perhaps though it is the fact that Greg Selinger has yet to be elected Premier by the general public, having being appointed first minister after election by the party. Still, don't forget how fortunate you really are Manitoba. You've got it ridiculously good!

Ontario is also following the national trend of hating however holds power. Support for the Liberals has dropped by about 10% in favour of the Progressive Conservatives. The NDP is sitting between 20% and 22% (sweet!) with the Greens at 8%. Also, a hefty amount of MPPs have announced their resignation as politicians by the dissolution of Parliament. A sign that not many have faith in the Dalton McGuinty government since the HST, health care cuts, online gambling announcement, or the 46% hike in energy costs have set in.

The good news just keeps coming doesn't it ladies and gentlemen? Well, Newfoundland and Labrador didn't fair too badly in 2010. Their energy sector of the economy grew, largely at the expense of the environment, while social services received little assistance. An energy deal was also signed between the province and Nova Scotia, effectively giving Danny Williams the justification to step down as Premier. He left office with an approval rating consistently ranging the seventies and eighties.

New Brunswick was the only province to hold a general election this year. Early in the year with the NB Power-Hydro Quebec deal causing outrage among the electorate, the Liberals were far behind the Progressive Conservatives. After the deal fell through though, they recovered greatly, and it appeared they might be capable to win in September. They didn't, it was quite similar to the 1999 election with Bernard Lord. Still the NDP recovered from the 2006 results, and the Greens didn't have a bad showing. The Liberals have continued their disarray after the party's worst election result ever. The provinces debt is still a paralyzing issue for New Brunswick, but the public is currently ignoring it, and supporting newly elected Premier David Alward en mass in opinion polls.

The NDP has its hands full in Nova Scotia. Major reforms to the education and health care system take time. Still, the changes over there seem to be always positive. The Liberals have been looking for scandals that are fictional, and the Tories have elected a new leader after the 2009 election. As a result the NDP has lost some support, at the expense of the Conservatives, but for 2010 marking the social democratic party's first full year in government, and often a governments worse, it's done quite well. In our smallest province, things were quiet. I would love to tell you about the provinces pressing issues, but no one has said a word about Prince Edward Island. I can assume that the recession is affecting them, but with support for the governing Liberals in the mid 60's, it sounds like the public is enjoying those centrist policies.

Finally, federal politics never maintained the public's attention for long. We got the usual, "Well, there might be an election..." with shifty eyes from Ignatieff and Harper, but overall nothing came of it. The budget was horrendous, the government also cut funding for legal abortions in third-world nations, and the Long Gun Registry nearly died. A lot of people resigned or announced their incoming retirement including NDP MP Judy-Wasylycia-Leis, Government House Leader Jay Hill, Environment Minister Jim Prentice, NDP MP Bill Siksay, Speaker of the House Peter Milliken, and Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca MP Keith Martin.

2010 had some prevailing themes regardless of your geographic position. The economy from the perspective of the kitchen table was the forefront of the public's attention. Social services specifically health care and education deserved a lot more attention then they received, but overall the public just wanted to be listened to. Most governments out there aren't listening to the people that elected them. Just ask Shawn Graham about acknowledging the people's opinions. Unless they clean up their act, Ed Stelmach, Dalton McGuinty and Dennis Fentie all might lose the label of Premier by the end of 2011. How exciting!

December 22, 2010

A Big Player

The BC Conservatives are shaping up to be a big player in the next provincial election. In fact, that might be quite an understatement; they could easily shape the form of the government after spending the last 24 years without a single MLA.

In 2009, the party received 2% of the vote with 24 candidates. While the leader, Wilf Hanni resigned shortly after this in June 2009, the party has continued to gain support. In 2010, the average amount of support was at 8%. They also hope to set up registered constituency associations in all electoral districts by the end of 2011, a tough goal, but an important step if it hopes to become a major player in BC politics.

Complete with a new executive, strategy groups, and advisory committees including former Socred Premier Rita Johnston and former MP Randy White, it is gaining support among voters dissatisfied with the Liberals and scared of the NDP. In essence, 2013 could very well be 1991 all over again - the governing right-wing party being replaced by another opposition party to face an NDP government.

Should the Conservatives be capable of running more candidates in 2013 than they did in 2009 (they probably will), they hold a very good chance of taking a substantial amount of support, somewhere along the lines of 10%, they will be vote-splitting with the Liberals. This will give us a much better chance of forming the government. An opposition in this case would be comprised of a few independents, Liberals and Conservatives, excellent.

The face of the right-wing may change in British Columbia, but from day one the left-wing has always been there, always pushing for a better BC, and that isn't about to change any time soon.

December 18, 2010

Yukon '11: A Preview

With a recent by-election in Whitehorse, and the time dwindling away from the Yukon Party's current mandate, a general election is coming. The Yukon Party, the Yukon Liberal Party, and Yukon New Democratic Party all could very well win in 2011, just a sign of how fragile the political landscape is in the territory.

As of today, the Yukon Party is on thin ice. While polling is few and far between, the most recent from July 2010 has the Yukon Party is last place with 22% (-19%), the NDP in second with 26% (+2%), and the Liberals in first with 39% (+5%). The remaining 13% are either planning on voting independent or are currently undecided. Still, these numbers move a lot, just a year ago the Yukon Party had a commanding lead over both parties, now it has all but disappeared.

The primary issues of concern behind the election are housing, crime and protection of the Peel watershed (the latter of which has been given lacklustre attention by the Yukon Party.) A new NDP leader, Elizabeth Hanson is around for this election replacing the late Todd Hardy. She easily won a by-election putting the Yukon Party and the Liberals far from her vote totals. She claims that her party very well could win the next election. We can only hope so.

Things appear bleak for Premier Dennis Fentie right now. Perhaps he too will learn a lesson from what many other right-wing politicians did in 2010, and resign.

December 12, 2010

Reforming BC

The Reform Party: anybody remember them back there in the mid 90's? Surprisingly, they're still around, still vying for your vote, still looking to reform BC, not for the better, but for the worse. Even odder then their continued existence is their policies. They don't even attempt to appear as progressive; they just flat out reject anything positive.

The party hopes to separate the legislative, executive and judicial branches of government if elected, despite the British North American Act ensuring this since 1867. They also hope to solve all murders in the province. Of course, it just wouldn't be a right-wing party if they didn't pledge lower taxes while also cutting back on government debt, without showing the numbers to support this. You also know they are significant party you can rely on with the term "diddly-squat" appearing in their plea for your vote. Now is when things are about to get really weird. The Reform Party opposes proportional representation despite the fact that it is their only hope to ever have an elected MLA again in Victoria. They also openly reject the Kyoto Accord, an international agreement to lower greenhouse gas emissions. In fact, they love carbon dioxide, at least according to their website.

I get the feeling that the Reform Party would be comprised of the same group of people who believe climate change is a myth. Always failing to address the problems of today, Reform does what every fringe party does: address the little things plaguing our society, but never the big ones. What about health care, education, crown corporations, the debt, the environment, or government accountability? Not a word. Ladies and gentlemen, this is conservatism at its best.

December 10, 2010

Auditioning to Become the Leader of the Opposition

Just as the BC Liberals are doing, the NDP is now beginning the difficult task of selecting a new leader. While no candidates have openly announced their intentions, unlike in the Fiberals case, we have yet to hear any New Democrat openly drool for Carole's job. So who's looking into leading the second largest party into the next election?

Adrian Dix MLA for Vancouver - Kingsway since 2005, former Chief of Staff to the Premier from 1996 to 1999, Shadow Minister of Health Services. As the critic for one the largest ministries in the government, Dix is well known among the party for defending our most sacred creation, universal health care from Liberal privatization. His constituency appears to be behind him, but I have yet to hear any support for him from outside Vancouver.

Mike Farnworth MLA for Port Coquitlam since 2005, MLA for Port Coquitlam-Burke Mountain from 1991 to 2001, Opposition House Leader, and Minister of Housing from 1997 to 1998. Mike is a good person to have on your side of the house during Question Period, somehow between the screaming and hollering of it, he is always the one to bring down the hammer. In an Ipsos Reid poll, he also appeared to have a strong lead in support among BC NDP members.

Rob Fleming MLA for Victoria-Swan Lake since 2009, MLA for Victoria-Hillside from 2005 to 2009, Shadow Minister of Environment. Rob is like the Liberals Kevin Falcon, he is young and charismatic, and could do quite well in a leadership race.

John Horgan MLA for Juan de Fuca since 2009, MLA for Malahat-Juan de Fuca from 2005 to 2009, Shadow Minister of Energy. Mr. Horgan is a well respected MLA among Liberals, New Democrats and Greens. His constituents-first style of leadership would be especially beneficial during a time of internal division such as this.

Leonard Krog MLA for Nanaimo since 2005, MLA for Parksville-Qualicum from 1991 to 1996, BC NDP leadership contender in 2003, Opposition critic for the Attorney General. Leonard didn't do too badly in the 2003 leadership convention, and that may just give him the encouragement to get involved again.

Bruce Ralston MLA for Surrey-Whalley since 2005, Shadow Minister of Finance. Bruce has become a house hold name as one of the first after Carole speaks to question the Liberals reasoning behind the HST.

Honestly, the NDP would be in good hands with any of these MLAs at the helm. Unfortunately, a new leader won't likely be selected until the spring of 2011, so the anticipation will have to hold for now. The new leader will have to quickly reunite the party if we hope to win the next election, which could easily be called early by the next Premier.

December 7, 2010

The Five Stages of Grief

Yesterday, Carole James announced her impending resignation as leader of the BC NDP and in turn Leader of the Official Opposition in early January. The difficult decision was made after caucus dissidents were unwilling to reach a compromise with Ms. James. Her decision was not expected by many, including myself. Just before the Sunday meeting was going to be held, an insider reported that she was not going to resign. It is clearly the 13 MLAs unreasonable demands and solidarity that caused yesterday's events.

Individuals from across the province some New Democrats, some not, were deeply saddened by the news. Many in the party too, approximately 84% of party members are also concerned about the lack of party unity especially in the face of a government implosion. They realize that it is the dissidents, who very well could have ruined the NDPs chances of forming the government in 2013 that are responsible. They are angry, and so am I.

As of today, I am not comfortable with Jenny Kwan's presence in the BC NDP caucus, let alone any of the dissidents affecting the party's agenda in the Legislature. They have undermined the democratic processes of our organization. Worst of all though, they have gone against our fundamental principle in our constitution: to do what is best for the people of this province, before personal gain. These individuals have failed to recognize this. Their actions should not be met without consequences.

Carole James is an amazing woman. Her passion for a stronger British Columbia is truly remarkable. Her charisma and charm brought life to a room. She is a tireless advocate for progressive policies that brought our party into the 21st century. Why have the wants of the few outweighed the needs of the many?

I respect your decision, Carole. Still, my disappointment runs deep in those that removed you. You are an inspiration to us all.

December 4, 2010

By-Elections 2010

Three by-elections were held on Monday, two of which in Manitoba, the other in Ontario. The by-elections filled the vacancies created by the resignation of Inky Mark in Dauphin - Swan River - Marquette, Maurizio Bevilacqua in Vaughan and Judy Wasylycia-Leis in Winnipeg North. The results were particularly devastating to the Green Party, along with the NDP who failed to hold on to Winnipeg North.

Dauphin - Swan River - Marquette voted as everyone predicted, Conservative. Robert Supock was elected with nearly the same amount of support his predecessor had, at 57%. The NDP placed in second increasing their support by 10%, far away from the Liberals and Greens totals.

Dauphin - Swan River - Marquette (Manitoba) by-election of 2010
1. SOPUCK, Robert (Conservative Party of Canada) 8,176 votes with 57% support
2. HARDER, Denise (New Democratic Party) 3,785 votes with 26% support
3. SARNA, Christopher Scott (Liberal Party of Canada) 1,481 votes with 10% support
4. STOREY, Kate (Green Party of Canada) 809 votes with 6% support
5. DONDO, Jerome (Christian Heritage Party of Canada) 160 votes with 1% support

In Vaughan, the real contest was between the Liberals Tony Genco and the Conservatives Julian Fantino, the former Commissioner of the Ontario Provincial Police. It is because of this the NDP and Green Party lost a large amount of support. The Liberals gave it their best, but a star Conservative candidate in Greater Toronto was too much for them.

Vaughan (Ontario) by-election of 2010
1. FANTINO, Julian (Conservative Party of Canada) 19,260 votes with 49% support
2. GENCO, Tony (Liberal Party of Canada) 18,263 votes with 47% support
3. BORDIAN, Kevin (New Democratic Party) 673 votes with 2% support
4. RODRIGUEZ-LARRAIN, Claudia (Green Party of Canada) 477 votes with 1% support
5. FABRIZIO, Paolo (Libertarian Party of Canada) 246 votes with 1% support
6. BAXTER, Dorian (Progressive Canadian Party) 112 votes
7. BORY, Leslie (Independent) 110 votes
8. JEDAN, Brian (United Party of Canada) 55 votes

Finally, it was a heated battle between former Liberal MLA Kevin Lamoureux and popular sports coach Kevin Chief. Here too, the Green vote fell in favour of either the Lamoureux or Chief, along with the Conservatives losing their second place finish established in 2008.

Winnipeg North (Manitoba) by-election of 2010
1. LAMOUREUX, Kevin (Liberal Party of Canada) 7,303 votes with 46% support
2. CHIEF, Kevin (New Democratic Party) 6,490 votes with 41% support
3. JAVIER, Julie (Conservative Party of Canada) 1,647 votes with 10% support
4. HARVIE, John (Green Party of Canada) 114 votes with 1% support
5. COLEMAN, Jeff (Pirate Party of Canada) 94 votes with 1% support
6. KOMARNISKI, Frank (Communist Party of Canada) 71 votes
7. TRUIJEN, Eric (Christian Heritage Party of Canada) 46 votes

These results show a massive drop in Green Party support across the board, although it may return when the focus is off these ridings during a general election. They also suggest Liberal support is continuing to slide in rural areas, with its replacement being the NDP. A Liberal victory on Monday also most likely reaffirmed the Liberals belief in a federal election being held in the first half of 2011. It is likely that should the opportunity arise, they will vote against next year's budget in the hope to cause this election.

December 3, 2010

Sensationalism

The media loves to twist stories. They love to whip the public into a mass state of panic, or in this case outright change. With the Liberals nearly reverting to third party polling numbers (23%-27%), the public is looking to the Official Opposition for leadership, in the form of the BC NDP. Some are arguing however that while a leadership change is occurring in the BC Liberals camp, so too should one occur in ours. These people are fucking idiots. With 50% support in the polls we are considering changing leaders, it's absurd.

A remarkable 86% of the BC NDP voted in support of Carole James continued leadership just over a week ago. Gordon Campbell had 84% in his party, and there was massive party solidarity in that organization. A few of our MLAs however feel that this vote wasn't accurate, or perhaps they just want to become leader themselves, but still they are calling for another leadership vote. Of our 34 MLAs, I believe there are a baker's dozen, also known as the "Wrecking Crew" have a difficult decision to make later today.

Carole James has made is obvious she is not resigning. I support her in that move. The Wrecking Crew are being given the option to either sit down and shut up or become an Independent MLA for the remainder of the Parliament. The latter of which would most certainly end their political careers. In other words, we would easily win their seats with new party candidates. Still, it is nice to see Ms. James fighting back as others bicker with her about a change, yet they neglect to state what they would change.

A leader should not be elected simply because of their electability, but rather their vision. We believe in social democracy, and Carole James fights for that. She is the best leader for the BC NDP, and I like so many other New Democrats around this great province, support her. I look forward to 2013. I look forward to the NDP in power once again with Carole James as Premier. I look forward to a social democratic British Columbia.